Meet the luckiest man in British politics
Dear Nick Clegg,
Ok, ok, I know that we don’t have all the details yet of your coalition with David Cameron and the Conservative Party. Even so, I think it is worth considering what you have been given by the Conservatives and also what might have been if things had been ever so slightly different on election day. Regardless of whether one agrees or disagrees with the decision to form a coalition government, the apparent mismatch between your bargaining position at the coalition talks and your election performance is quite remarkable.
As I write this letter, I can congratulate you on becoming Deputy Prime Minister as this is one of the very few confirmed posts. There are also rumours about Vince Cable being given the post of Chief Secretary to the Treasury, which could give him significant scope for taking on the banks, while David Laws and Chris Huhne may be in line for senior Cabinet positions as well. For the Liberal Democrats, the allure of power seemed too great to ignore. I am in no doubt that if Labour and the Lib Dems were able to form a majority government together then this would have come to pass rather than a Con-Lib coalition, as the differences in policy, values and attitudes between the Conservatives and Lib Dem could hardly be greater. That said, the compromises offer some cause for optimism. Marriage tax breaks and inheritance tax breaks are off the agenda for now while a referendum on AV is effectively guaranteed. Few Conservatives would oppose your ambition of raising the income tax threshold to £10,000, although during this unsettled economic time I think it is madness to pursue such a policy. Even so, the Lib Dems have successfully negotiated on a number of key areas and no doubt the senior figures in your party will consider that something of a success.
Despite all this, I am still feeling rather numb this morning. When a Lib-Lab pact was floated, the rather cruel observation that it would be a ‘Coalition of Losers’ took hold very quickly – and with good reason. Such a term highlighted one very important fact that I believe some commentators are missing: the Lib Dems are losers. The 2010 general election was nothing short of a humiliation for the Lib Dems. At least Labour had low expectations, whereas the Lib Dems were aiming for 100+ seats. Never before in British politics have I seen a party or individual so comprehensively defeated yet end up with more stature and power than they had before. If the Conservatives had gained just a handful more seats, your position as leader of the Lib Dems would be seriously under threat and your party would be consigned to a thoroughly deserved period of irrelevance yet again. In my view, the only reason that the Lib Dems even had a voice at the negotiating table was because David Cameron wanted this to work, not because you or your party had done anything to merit a strong negotiating position. For a party to end up with one-sixth of the number of MPs as the Conservatives but still be awarded several senior Cabinet roles is incredible.
It seems as though David Cameron’s desire to form a coalition government was the decisive factor in these negotiations. On the basis of your election performance, you deserved no sympathy and no Cabinet positions. However, Cameron obviously felt that he was better going forward with someone else on board, even if it came at considerable cost to his own MPs and his support among the grassroots. This almost unprecendeted coalition has put both you and our new Prime Minister in a perilous position before the new government has even had its first Cabinet meeting. Whether or not this backroom deal can stand the test of time, or even a few years, remains to be seen. Even so, when you and your colleagues feel like rebelling or breaking the line or tearing up the coalition deal - which will surely happen before too long – just remember the fate that could have awaited you as you woke up on Friday 7th May 2010. Your career could have been over by now, were it not for the Conservatives being off their game in the run-up to the election. Quite simply, you are the luckiest man in British politics.
Yours sincerely,
A.Tory
That is true inaq sense LFAT – but having been treated as outcast for so many years, we should be generous to the LDs.
I believe that this an attempt to be less tribal about politics and with Labour goner (who will never ever get this), there is a certain freshness in air this morning. The smell of putrid flesh has receded.
By asking the LDs to share the political cost of cuts, Cameron is ensuring that both parties will either hang together or succeed together. Both parties have nowhere else to go and that will keep them both honest.
I wish them well and give thanks.
I agree that Cameron will benefit from having another party alongside him while he makes cuts. That said, if the economy struggles then they will both be held responsible by the electorate – and it’s hello to Labour earlier than we thought.
That very thought should keep the new coalition of the unwilling sharp, bright and on their toes.
The problem is, Patrick, that there is only one major repository for protest votes – if you didn’t like Conservatives before, you could either vote Lib Dem or Labour, but now everyone who is unhappy will have to go to Labour to push out the government. This inescapable truth does not bode well for the Con-Lib coalition at the next election in 2015, even if things go relatively smoothly until then.
They could go UKIP LFAT… but I am told by a reliable source that they were prepared to stand down in favour of the Tories last week if they had been made aware of a possible referendum on PR… if that had happened we may well have seen a conservative majority.
We live in very interesting times – are you REALLY sure you want to hang up your pencil?
LFAT – I hope they take Lord Tebbits advice and get an independent IMF audit of the nations finances and make sure that the public KNOW it was Labour who put us here, otherwise I fear we may see a return of the reds.
People should know that the reason the public sector is going to get hacked is that Labour created fake jobs on tick in their 13 years in power and that those who will lose their jobs have been conned and betrayed by Labour.
If both sides use their smarts they’ll stick like glue for 3 years, then the Lib Dems exit from the coalition amicably leaving a minority Tory government.
That gives the Lib Dems 2 years to snipe at the Tories, whilst also claiming partial responsibility for the legislation they approve of, and the Tories 2 years to drum up popular policies that they know will be blocked in Parliament and hence accuse the Lib Dems and Labour of blocking, even though they know they’d have difficulty implementing them financially.
If this coalition works, and if the economy improves and if people don’t feel too punished by austerity measures, such a position would benefit both Lib Dems and Tories in England, although I suspect the Lib Dems are finished in Scotland due to the coalition. But it’s time to cut Scotland loose anyway.
Either way, we’re going to see some of Labours idiocies rolled back, so even if the whole thing turns into a Marx Brothers movie we’ll have benefited.
@LFAT: “Few Conservatives would oppose your ambition of raising the income tax threshold to £10,000, although during this unsettled economic time I think it is madness to pursue such a policy.”
Not sure it is – if people have more to spend, that’ll help the economy from the bottom up. Given the interest rates, no point in saving just yet.
If Cameron was offered the choice between either the Con / Lib coalition or a small overall majority, which he would chose? Imagine a majority under the effective control of minority of right wing nutters. There’s no saying that the coalition will be stable, but a small overall majority certainly wouldn’t , with wierdos, self-publicists and the grim reaper all playing their part to destabilise the edifice. As it is, economic and social liberalism have met, and just maybe we are witnessing a huge shift in the political landscape and behaviours which will last for generations. Huge risks for all concerned, not least the Labour party who could find themselves kicked into the long grass for a very long time. I’d be worrying if I were them.
Roseleen, UKIP voters would probably back Conservatives under AV though, meaning that the votes will still end up back with Cameron!
FLS, dangerous game, though – not sure the international markets will be happy to hear about how bad things are.
Obsidian, Cameron’s masterplan had better include English votes on English laws. Incidentally, such an arrangement would have meant that he would have a majority in the Commons for any English matter…
Molly, Labour won’t be gone for long. They will be the sole voices of dissent on most matters, meaning that their media coverage will rocket.
Well, the LDs did get 64% of the Tory vote, so one could say they deserve at least 9 cabinet seats..
I hope you won’t mind me saying that I think this letter is a little ungracious. The Liberals increased their share of the vote at this election and got more than 6 million votes (compared with 10 million for the Tories). Their result is only a failure in comparison with media expectations of a huge upset.
We have to make this coalition work for the sake of our country, and to that end should understand that like it or not, the Liberal Democrats are right now our allies not our enemies.
When the election comes, things will be different, and of course we’ll campaign against them. For now, we need to work with the Liberals to sort out our country.
I think both Cameron and Clegg have come out well out of this and deserve our support. Both men did what their old guard would never have done and compromised for the sake of the country. I’m pleased that we now have a whole new generation in charge after all those years with the Boomers running things. As the Independent predicted last week (http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/jonathan-pontell-cleggs-rise-is-the-sound-of-generation-jones-clearing-its-throat-1961191.html) “the torch has been passed” from the Boomers to Generation Jones. Cameron and Clegg are both members of the latter.