Would the Tories relish a March 2010 election?
Dear Eric Pickles,
As you seem to spend most of your time running round the country trying to dampen local political fires such as the row over the ‘Turnip Taliban’, I can’t say for sure how much time you actually dedicate to election planning. Rumours of a general election in March continue to circulate, yet the Conservatives potentially have a lot to gain and a lot to lose if this does indeed come to pass.
According to recent reports, senior conservatives believe that Gordon Brown may call a general election in March to head off the prospect of bad economic statistics scuppering his claim that he had guided Britain safely out of recession. The economy is expected to grow in the final three months of this year, with the official figures due to be released in January. But if that growth is not maintained when figures for the first quarter of 2010 are issued in April, it would clearly deal a devastating blow to the PM. “There is a real possibility that, after one quarter of growth, Britain slips backwards,” said one Tory frontbencher. “If that happened, there would be fears about a double-dip recession. It would blow Brown’s credentials as the man who steered us through the storm out of the water.” Labour certainly suffered a setback last month when the ONS said the economy contracted by 0.4% in the third quarter of this year.
One argument in favour of an early election is it would be before new tax rises take effect in April (including the controversial 50p top rate). However, a March election would almost certainly prevent a Budget being held in the run-up to the election and you’d probably welcome Labour not having the option of a few headline-grabbing ‘goodies’. That said, under the fiscal stability code that Brown introduced in 1998, there must be a gap of at least three months between the pre-Budget report and the Budget. Alistair Darling will present his PBR on 9 December, so the Budget could not be held until 9 March, preventing a 25 March election being announced at the start of the month – although, let’s be honest, Brown has a track record in ignoring his own economic rules. Furthermore, if an election is called without a Budget being held, you could easily accuse Labour of “running scared” and trying to “hide the truth” about the state of the economy.
But is it really that one-sided? Could Labour gain from an early election as well? As he did with the G7 summit, Brown’s appearance on the international stage manages to kid a few voters that someone somewhere actually listens to him. Unfortunately for the Conservatives, Brown will attend next month’s Copenhagen summit on climate change, host an international conference on Afghanistan in January, host an international investment conference in London in February and attend a Washington summit on nuclear disarmament called by Obama in March ahead of a review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. This could give him another opportunity to strut his stuff, so to speak. Then again, the fact that these summits and conferences always end up with nothing more than a few soundbites might leave some voters even more disillusioned. No doubt you will be readying the troops for electoral battle in case a snap election is called. Even so, the fact that Tony Blair won the 2005 election by a mile with just 35% of the vote emphasises how disastrous a late Brown-boost close to election time could be.
Yours sincerely,
A.Tory
I feel a May election is more likely…
Seeing as Labour may not have the financial clout to separate campaigning for the London council elections in May from the general election, May is certainly the safest bet – but not the only bet. Perhaps they will just give up on the London councils and try to surprise the Conservatives in February / March?
Events, dear boy, events.
That said, I can easily image Brown plotting a March poll in his bunker in February. Then I picture him looking at the economy and the grim news from our Afghan battlefield and wondering if, perhaps, he just waited until May, maybe things would be a bit better.
And so on until he runs out of time and the choice gets made for him.
I think Shaun has it. This is the man who wrote the book on ‘Courage’, remember…
The election will happen when Mandelson is ready; no sooner, no later.
Brown appears incapable of being anything other than paralysed by fear plus his own arrogance that he can make things better.
Shaun has it.
The bunker general will move a few more ghost panzer corps around the map, ask his spin doctors to produce some more ‘V’ weapons and exhort the people to make ever greater sacrifices to save ‘the 1,000 year project’
Then Cameron will mount a flank attack somewhere,The expenses bombers will knock more holes in his MPs or someone will lose a data disk or something and Brown will fold up and blow away like a cheap umbrella.
You mean the 13th Armoured New Labour Legion isn’t real? Then who’s holding our flank? Peter? Is that you…?
Re Shaun Pilkington and Bill Quango MP, as someone who has served in an Armoured Division, may I butt in? Just over the media horizons, which are very short, there are a number of possible disasters. The question is which might materialise, when, and to what effect. My bet is on interest rates, but the Dubai business is an example. Any other ideas are welcome and may well be right.
Brown has only to sit back until March/May and watch while Pickles destroys the morale of the grass roots of the Party and watches all the activists give up the work of fund raising and leafleting.No more coffee mornings or raffles! Members defecting to UKIP and even Lib Dems. Blair capitalised on a divided and disenchanted Tory party and so will Brown. (We are doomed, Capt Mainwaring, doomed.)
Cams main hurdle is still that more people don’t want labour as opposed to more people actually wanting the cons.
The more I see him on tv, the more i think the change will be from New Labour to Blue Labour…
@FLS – The problem that Cameron is trying to hurdle is the fact that the people hate Brown but still want to vote for Labour, they want jam forever. They know in their right minds that the spending can’t for on for ever but they might just vote for it and hope someone else is paying, or some piece of luck appears on the horizon.
In reality, it is those voters that Cameron has to reach, because he has a tenpoint hurdle built in plus Scotland and the rotten boroughs.
As for the election, I’m sure it will be May, for two of the reasons others have mentioned. First, Labour are flat broke, and the electoral commission’s figures this week show that they are recieving about two thirds of what the opposition are at present. Wth their current debt level, that is a massive problem.
Second, we are talking about Brown. Courage my arse! And if he gives Mandleson the FCO, you can guarantee that he will want to hang on for as long as he can and Brown will be a passenger. Also, if Brown believes he can’t win, he will take the extra time to lay traps for the incoming government, more scorched earth to trip up his opponents.
@Demetrius –
The Dubai thing looks very dangerous. Look at the bank shares tumbling. Knock on effect is unknown at present. If the UAE steps in to save the day then it will probably be all right. If not… more bank bailouts? bigger bank loans and greater gilts issues?
Nothing good here, and nothing good on the horizon once the Xmas blip good cheer figures are in.
I think there’ll be everything to play for until the moment the polls close, whenever the election is. But, as the anthropogenic climate change conspiracy comes undone, perhaps it’s good that Brown may attend Copenhagen instead of Cameron.
Avoiding a pre-election budget could well appeal to Brown. There will be a lot of difficult questions if the next budget doesn’t start to address the great deficit hanging over us.
patently says : “The election will happen when Mandelson is ready; no sooner, no later.”
Mandelson is ready now, his precious Lisbon has been signed and activated. Brown’s gaffe level has shot up since then, which means Mandelson is no longer advising him. Or even giving him bum steers ?
Alan Douglas