Gordon Brown is far from safe, if Ireland is anything to go by
Dear Brian Cowen,
I don’t know whether you have had time to watch what’s been happening in Westminster over the past couple of weeks as Gordon Brown’s government descends into chaos. To be fair, being Irish Prime Minister has probably been just as bad, from what I’ve been reading, but there are a number of interesting parallels that can be drawn between your desperate plight and the almost comical situation that the Labour Party finds itself in.
You can take some comfort from the fact that your own Fianna Fail party hasn’t turned on you (yet). Even as recently as last night, Gordon Brown was having to fend off calls for him to stand down from former minister Stephen Byers, former home secretary Charles Clarke and MPs Fiona McTaggart, Tom Harris and Siobhan McDonagh. This comes just hours after Labour MPs Sally Keeble, Frank Field and Jane Kennedy added their names to the ever-increasing list of backbenchers who are sick and tired of the Prime Minister. It looks as though this will not be enough to topple Gordon Brown because, for reasons that I simply cannot comprehend, other Labour MPs seem to think that the party is in reasonable shape. Well, either that or the bullying tactics of Brown’s inner circle have done the job. The Telegraph is reporting this morning that several Labour MPs who are opposed to Brown’s leadership accused Downing Street of using smears, anonymous briefings, intimidation and threats to put down the attempted coup. Some MPs in marginal seats said they had been threatened with a withdrawal of support for their election campaigns if they spoke out against him, while others said they were told that ministerial visits and other PR opportunities could be withheld. Frank Field even suggested Mr Brown’s aides had tried to “terrorise” MPs into backing him, echoing previous comments by Jane Kennedy who said that she was “unhappy about smears against colleagues, about undermining of colleagues and friends by No 10.” It really is just one great big mess.
However, even though you haven’t reached this stage of internal loathing, your own position is far from secure. You are about to face a vote of no confidence in your government after a dismal set of election results. Support for Fianna Fail dropped by 6.4% to 25.4% in municipal elections and your party also lost its European Parliament seat in Dublin. The slump in support comes as you also grapple with western Europe’s worst performing economy, unemployment at a 13-year high and a widening budget deficit that’s forced you to raise taxes. Fine Gael, the largest opposition party, will table the motion of no confidence in your coalition government this week, although the coalition has a majority in the Irish parliament. An Irish Times poll on May 15 showed that 86% of people are dissatisfied with your government’s performance, with just 10% satisfied. Indeed, your own personal rating was the lowest among all party leaders. Paddy Power has now shortened the odds on a general election taking place this year to 1-2 from 8-13. Your defiance was clear enough: “If the leader of the opposition wants to put down a motion [of no confidence] we will strenuously defend and defeat it. We will do whatever is necessary to restore stability and bring growth to the economy.” Not exactly stirring stuff. You might have noticed Gordon Brown and his cronies trying to deflect attention onto the economy to mask their own failures, and we haven’t fallen for it. The terrible local and European election results also sound very familiar, as does the faltering economy and rising unemployment.
Personally, I think David Cameron calling for a vote of no confidence in the government would be a very bad move. It will give the Labour Party an excuse to close ranks and remind them who they are supposed to be fighting, which is the last thing the Conservatives want. Furthermore, a defeat for the Conservatives might knock their current momentum. That said, our economy still has a long, bumpy road ahead and although I doubt we will ever reach the same degree of total dissolution in the economy that you have perfected, Gordon Brown and our economy are far from safe.
Yours sincerely,
A.Tory
“..for reasons that I simply cannot comprehend, other Labour MPs seem to think that the party is in reasonable shape. “
I don’t think they really do.
I think they are just paralysed by the thought that it’s all over, so are hunkering down and waiting it out, hoping that the economy will take an upswing, and that this is just a ‘bad patch’.
The trouble is going to be the Irish yes vote.
Julia, hard to say but you might be right. Judging by some of the reported comments from supportive Labour MPs, some of them seem pretty convinced about Gordo!
James, the Lisbon Treaty vote is a done deal – the eurosceptics were wiped out in the MEP elections. Even Libertas couldn’t get in and the public have turned remarkably pro-EU as their economy collapses (looking for a bailout, no doubt).
There isn’t actually much that kicking out Brown will achieve. The Labour Party have been reasonably pleased with Brown’s policy choices – the 50p tax band, the bank nationalisations, and so on. Replacing Brown would be an admission that they care more about presentation than they do about policy.
The problem is, while their policies are very popular in the party, they are decidedly unpopular with the electorate.
I don’t think the PLP are best pleased about 42 day detention, Royal Mail Privatisation, 10p tax debacle….
LFAT “the Lisbon Treaty vote is a done deal – the eurosceptics were wiped out in the MEP elections”
The Irish seem to have no perception of their own history. They fought many years for the right to independence from Britain, much of its chargrain against the problems in farming brought on by the oppression of landlords over tenants and the corn laws which kept cheap foreign corn off British tables while many starved.
Yet now they embrace EU protectionism, a currency which disadvantages them with high prices, an economic policy imposed on them for the good of France and Germany, the CAP, and an increase in the democratic deficit.
Do they really think that it is better to be bought off now with subsidy, only to relinquish the independence that they have under a wave of EU interference?
Honestly Tony, I don’t think Irish voters are particularly rational right now. Their economy is likely to shrink by 10% this year, unemployment is wildly out of control – they are simply in tatters. The government seem like an obvious scapegoat, leaving the EU looking positively rosy. The public are looking for a way out and with EU bailouts already been given to some smaller nations (in Eastern Europe, if I remember correctly), they presumably see it as their best option. Liberty, independence – these are meaningless terms in Ireland right now, it seems.
Deluded Labour Mps, getting on message about how in 2004 they suffered a reverse and came back to win the election, are filling the airwaves.
But that is to compare apples with mini diggers.
the last Euro election was the first chance to vote on an unpopular war. The chance to give Tony Blair a good kicking. Many Labour supporters voted for the others to remind TB and the PLP that votes mattered.
GB took the hint and after years of feeble plotting arranged for his chief henchmen to sort of oust Tony, sort of leave him to go on his own. A bit like the present situation.
Voters did not want Michael Howard, the Harriet Harman choice from the conservative party. Labour supporters believed in Labour, but not in Bush/Iraq.
This time it is different. Voters don’t want Labour. They don’t want Brown. They don’t even want a replacement for Brown. They want change. They want someone else and all the media coaching, unfunded tax cuts, wild promises, U-turns, public sector pay rises, and promises to try harder are not going to change that.
I agree Bill, there is no comparison to Michael Howard or anything of the sort. Strange as it may sound, the public are sick and tired of the government spending so much money.