The Great Escape – Tory style
Dear William Hague,
The soundbytes in the morning papers will bring joy to the hearts of many Conservatives around the country – Labour in third place with under 16% of the popular vote. On the BBC election coverage last night, you came across as relaxed, optimistic and sincere while Harriet Harman tried to divert the conversation onto MPs expenses at every available opportunity. While most of the commentary will focus on the collapse of Labour and the rise of the BNP, I suspect that you will be happy to receive such minimal scrutiny because, deep down, this really was a great escape for the Conservatives.
In front of the cameras, it is all smiles and cheers. With results declared in almost every region, the Conservatives have secured 28.6% of the vote, up from 26.7% in 2004, and you polled the most votes in all but one English region. You took this as evidence that the party was “advancing” in all areas of the country. Of course, these results come on top of a strong showing in the council elections on Friday, where you polled 38% of the vote and took control of a host of councils across the south west and the Midlands. Needless to say, you didn’t miss the opportunity to state that these results showed that Gordon Brown’s authority had disappeared completely and he should call an immediate general election. In total, you secured 24 seats in the European Parliament – almost twice as many as Labour, who got 13. Your share of the vote was broadly unchanged in many regions, although it rose significantly in the East Midlands at the expense of both UKIP and Labour, despite many voters using the polls to punish the main parties after the expenses scandal. The highlight of the evening for the Conservatives was undoubtedly its triumph in Wales, where you polled 7,000 more voters than Labour and relegated it into second place for the first time in a national election for about 90 years, leading Shadow Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan to declare that “the Labour Party has taken people in Wales for granted for an awfully long time [and] I hope that we can show people in Wales that we really have something to offer.”
What a night. For your share of the vote to increase amid the furore over moats and duck islands is impressive, particularly with UKIP making similar advances. However, I don’t think it’s as straightforward as that. The Conservatives’ plan to leave the centre-right grouping of parties in Brussels, the European People’s Party, is only in its infancy and there is still plenty of time for difficult negotiations and a few stumbles as your opponents try to brand you as ‘isolated’ and getting into bed with the wrong sorts of individuals. Furthermore, Merkel, Sarkozy and Berlusconi are unlikely to be too happy about a possible future UK government digging their heels in. As if this wasn’t going to be problematic enough, the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty is now going to become even more urgent among the federalists within the EU in the full knowledge that you will slam the brakes on next May. Compounding both of these major hurdles remains the issue of how serious you are about taking powers back from Brussels. Essentially, David Cameron and yourself are attempting to defy history by becoming the first British government (and possibly the first ever politicians in European history) to wind back the EU and regain some of our lost independence. Although you will be able to use last night’s results as a loose indication that the public support you on Europe, the fact of the matter is that no-one knows for sure how hardline you are with regard to taking on the EU. I’m sure you are delighted to get through the entire EU election campaign without a single instance of you being forced to come clean about the EU because ever since David Cameron became leader of the Conservatives in 2005 you have made your desire to dodge the issue abundantly clear.
I very much doubt that you will veer from your current course over Europe (i.e. call for referendum on Lisbon Treaty, say that you won’t ratify it blah blah blah) now that you have sneaked your true plan on the EU past the electorate. This truly was a great escape as you have got to be almost unique as a political party who went into an election desperately trying to avoid talking about the election itself. With a heavily Eurosceptic party and an increasingly Eurosceptic public, you are on safe ground for now – but this won’t last forever.
Yours sincerely,
A.Tory
I have made LFAT’s short list! Fame at last!! Geek status attained!!!
DC, whatever else his myriad faults may be, has a firm grasp of the truism that “politics is the art of the possible”. We got thumped in 3 GE’s for banging on about Europe. The electorate are beginning to cotton on to the dangers of submerging our identity in a post-democratic authoritarian socialist construct, albeit 20 years after the Libertarian tendency woke up to it. Well over 50% of the popular vote has gone to eurosceptic parties in the UK, and the federasts have been roundly rejected. The almost complete silence from Tory federasts during the election points to a battle being won by the sceptics, and the proposed new strongly sceptic intake when we finally get a long-overdue GE will strengthen DC’s hand. Bear in mind that CCHQ was heavily involved in candidate selection. The jewel in DC’s Crown is Dan Hannan, who by his strongly-principled resistance and strength of argument to the formation of the “2nd Carolingan Empire”, has made euroscepticism respectable.
I see DC as able to go with the flow of electoral opinion and, as William hinted last night, so word the Tory manifesto as to make the next GE a referendum on European issues.
The electorate just do not trust cameron on the eu issue.I can see a massive call for a referendum,people are fed up being lied to and taken for granted.If the conservatives had offered a referendum just look at what their vote could have been.Add ukips vote to the conservatives to see that.In the next general election the anti eu labour voters will vote ukip as they know labour have no chance.
The conservatives are hoping the ukippers will vote for them in the general election but I’n not so sure they will,people are getting polarised with regard to the eu.We were lied to once by government and media over the eu but we have the internet now so there will be less control and manipulation.
Nice article. But you missed the elephant in the room.
UKIP
If you take them into the equation, they need to be sidelined or you will be screwed in the forthcoming general election. We already saw in the last GE around 24 seats lost to other parties due to the effect of the UKIP vote.
Like a lot of other natural conservative voters, I voted UKIP this time. I want the party to understand I am sick to death of the continuing years of dispute over Europe. So I voted UKIP to get your attention.
Simply put, we need a manifesto commitment to a referendum on actual membership of the EU, not on the Lisbon Lie. For once and for all lets get a definitive decision from the country. And if they want out, so be it. That’s called democracy. And if they want to stay – ditto.
I am pro-European (provided it has a government I can elect). I feel that a no vote on a question worded such as ‘Do you want to remain in the EU under the way it is currently run?’ would give the future PM a huge card to play – and if in the end the EU will not reform sufficiently then I think we must go. And I do not accept we would be the losers overall.
If the party does nothing, so be it. But at least I tried to bring it to your attention before I have to vote UKIP in an election that matters.
@ grumpy old man:
The man in charge of the selection of new tory waanabe mps is a europhile and will not select any BOO members.Cameron will not allow any declared BOO candidates to stand.
Don’t bank on cameron as a euro sceptic,all the evidence leans the other way.
I thought the conservatives were a party for democracy but by not allowing any BOO members it shows it is still not listening to the public,let alone its own members.They want change but won’t allow it in their own party.What does that tell you,just another control party like labour.
“The electorate are beginning to cotton on to the dangers of submerging our identity in a post-democratic authoritarian socialist construct, albeit 20 years after the Libertarian tendency woke up to it.”
Indeed we are!
JuliaM wrote:
In all fairness we’ve only had 12 years of New… oh wait a minute…
What made me laugh was the proliferation of hard left ‘real socialist, socialist labour, people’s front of judea’ parties who all screamed ‘No to EU’ and ‘We’re just like UKIP but we hate business!’. There seemed to be loads of them here in the South East. It is a pleasant reminder that back in 1972, those anti-business, anti-trade, protectionist shouts came from Labour itself who of course opposed membership of the EEC.
Also, if the BNP is a minority ‘fringe’ party on 6% of the vote (which it is), then what does that say about Labour on 15%, just 2.5x more than their hard left, flag waving rivals? And by the same token, surely that result makes UKIP mainstream as the beat both Labour and the Lib Dems?
Although I voted Tory all the way (and that’s been a fairly long time), I am proud to have worked on the UKIP regional (constituency) sites for the Euros, where I put in the template/CMS system wot drives them. I look forwards, I hope, to a great deal of EU-funded digital largess in the coming years!
GOH, maybe the Conservatives will bring it up around election time, but it won’t be a debate about leaving the EU.
DMC, I agree that Cameron could have got extra votes by demanding a referendum regardless of whether Lisbon is ratified. However, the mess that ratifying Lisbon will create should it sneak through before May 2010 will be considerable.
Steve, the EU will never reform itself for the better. It has proved time and time again, particularly with the CAP (50% of the EU budget, remember) that self-interest will always win. That is why I want to pull out of the EU, not because it can’t do any good, but because it won’t do any good.
Julia, I think the public are very aware of what Lisbon means and how it pushes up one step further towards full integration. No-one save for a few bare-faced liars can dismiss this now.
Shaun, the BNP had a brilliant night and Labour only have themselves to blame. Maybe all those people who want PR introduced in general elections might want to consider the BNP’s success as well.
Shaun, the BNP had a brilliant night and Labour only have themselves to blame. Maybe all those people who want PR introduced in general elections might want to consider the BNP’s success as well.
That’s a weak, anti-democratic argument. If the BNP started to get seats in the Commons under first-past-the-post, people who use that argument will try and find another way to ignore the democratically expressed wishes of the electorate.
I can’t stand the BNP but believe that to destroy them, treat them the same as everyone else as they are composed of marginalised, antisocial, racist weirdos who will crumble under the spotlight. However, people have the right to vote for them and as such, I oppose nobbling systems to ensure that those votes will never count – that’s worse than just banning the BNP because it is using a quirk of maths to disenfranchise voters with as many rights (tho not necessarily wits) as you or I.
Nope, I wouldn’t try to find another way. I believe that MPs should be elected by their local population in a general election, which is why I oppose PR for Parliament. If local people want to elect a BNP candidate as their local representative, who am I to stand in their way? Obviously we don’t control the way that the EU elects MEPs, but if PR is upscaled to a national level for a UK general election then the BNP will become a significant player.
I just find it highly ironic that Labour are pretending to be the party of parliamentary reform (including openly considering PR) while slating the BNP.
What’s the fuss about the BNP? Their target voters are the white unemployed underclass, so they’ll never get more than about 5% or 10% of the votes.
Good letter, I’d only quibble with “Essentially, David Cameron and yourself …”, that should be “Essentially, David Cameron and you …”
LFAT wrote:
That presumes lists and no constituencies, doesn’t it? Otherwise 6.5% will never, ever stack to the 50% + 1 you’d need for a seat under STV or ATV.
PR isn’t an upscaling thing. Its a new system. You can have constituencies and ATV counting as in Ireland (or is it STV, I get confused) or lists like in Italy (which I oppose as they are party-patronage to the max!).
Mark, at the moment they are still stuck in certain groups but as their message and popularity expands then they might start to tempt others as well.
Shaun, I was indeed assuming no constituencies. Alternative voting systems probably need more than this comment thread to tackle them!!!
I have a theory that if Gordon hangs on too long there will be a break away Labour party. This could be good news for the consrvatives as it would dilute the Labour vote as UKIP have done for the Conservatives.
I can certainly see how the BNP got in. Having lived in Lancashire for 20 or so years I understand the attitude there that made at least 8% of people vote BNP and 10% in Yorkshire. There is a much stronger divide between people of diff nationalities. You just don’t have the same problem in London, where there is greater coexistence. Radical attitudes are rife on both sides – remember the 7/7 bombers came from Yorkshire. And people are annoyed in that region that so little is being done for the white working class when they see these people getting houses, cars and then bombing their own countrymen. You can see where the frustration starts. For democracy’s sake I am glad they got in!
There is already a Socialist Workers Party and a Communist Party, but the disgruntled lefties seem more interested in the Greens.
LFAT wrote:
Yes, because that was where the Revolutionary Communist Party decamped to enmasse as part of a deliberate Trotskyite-Entryist programme when the RCP had to wind up in 1997. That’s why the Green Party’s economic policy relies on unalloyed collectivism and holds consumerism to be anathema. Do keep up!
(comment deleted for breaking the rules of this blog)
@ Mark Wadsworth:
I am white and employed and I voted for the BNP because none of the Mainstream Parties are answering my concerns, perhaps now they will.