Talk of a 2009 General Election gathers pace, but the risks are plain to see for both sides
Dear Jonathan Freeland,
Your article on Comment is Free this morning has nicely captured some of the confusion that currently surrounds political life in the UK. No-one is entirely sure what will happen for the rest of 2008, let alone 2009, but this uncertainty is breeding talk of an election next year. For the last year or so, Brown’s abysmal poll ratings have all but wiped out any suggestion that an election would happen any earlier than it had to. In an astonishing turnaround, your analysis will chime with many within the Labour Party who are beginning to feel that spring/summer 2009 is looking a lot more tempting than June 2010.
You know something strange is happening when the Conservative Party disapprove of government tax cuts. David Cameron’s announcement that they are pulling out of their commitment to match Labour’s spending commitments was welcomed with opens arms by Conservative supporters. They have now set themselves an enormous task: find the money to fund tax cuts from Labour’s present spending plans. The contrast to Gordon Brown’s approach couldn’t be starker. He still believes, as you said, in basic Keynesian principles i.e. “the most useful tool for digging your way out of a recession is a chequebook”. So far so good for Mr Brown as his poll deficit has begun to shrink and his stature on the international stage has improved somewhat.
What you have rightly spotted is that Labour tax cuts (to be announced next week) can go one of two ways: they can make a difference, or there can make no difference. You think that he’ll be finished if the latter is the case and that even if the former comes to pass Brown could still be toast as voters may decide that “Brown had served his purpose and was no longer needed.” Ridiculous as it may sound, I think you’re right to posit that Brown wants the crisis to go on but not to get much worse. Changing governments during a time of crisis, be it war or an economic downturn, is not something that voters in this country has been faced with for a long time. Would the public really want Cameron and Osborne to step in if Gordon has steadied the ship? If unemployment fails to show dramatic increases, will the voters feel a need to push Gordon out? It is precisely this line of thought that leads to speculation about an election in 2009 because by 2010, if the economic downturn is still in full swing then Gordon Brown’s tax cuts of November 2008 will have become nothing more than a footnote. You picked up on some interesting possibilities in early 2009. Perhaps “the current anxiety will give way to relief among most people that they have, in fact, kept their job and their home” and it is extremely likely that “inflation, interest rates and taxes will all be relatively low”. That said, the scales are finely balanced. Low inflation could tip into deflation and if Gordon Brown has already declared a General Election he will unable to slam the brakers on.
But what of the Conservatives? Would they relish a 2009 election? What if the tax cuts had made a small difference to the national economic landscape, or Obama comes into office hailing Brown and the world follows him? These are not beyond the realms of possibility. If the tax cuts fail and unemployment rises sharply, Cameron et al would destroy Brown at the polls but would Brown fare any better if he waited until after a disastrous set of European Elections in June 2009 and poor council election results in spring/summer 2009 as well? That said, you are right to identify the risk to the Conservatives. “They have to cling to the belief that when the economy sours, voters – eventually – sour on governments”, which is far from guaranteed and they will be rooted to the spot as ”Brown zips from summit to summit saving the world” over the coming weeks and months. As yet, it is true that “they do not have a detailed, costed and expert-backed recovery plan of their own” but this will change soon enough. ID cards, the NHS computer database, the ContactPoint database of children’s records, Regional Development Agencies – all these projects could be scrapped and billions would be freed to fund permanent tax cuts. The appeal that this would hold among voters is potentially significant, as Brown can offer nothing more than temporary gain accompanied by long-term pain if he pursues his current course. However, if Alistair Darling announces tax cuts funded by lower spending next week, all bets are off.
The battle over the coming months will be ferocious. Brown will “cast the newly prudent Tories as stingy Thatcherites bent on choking schools and hospitals with vicious spending cuts [and] we’ll hear Brown’s greatest hits all over again: investment v cuts, investment v cuts, repeat to fade”, while the Conservatives will ”present themselves as the party of fiscal responsibility against Labour’s reckless borrowing”. It is a fascinating prospect, and what makes it even more interesting is that both sides are now taking huge gambles that may ultimately decide the next election before it has even been announced.
Yours sincerely,
A.Tory
Witanagemot Blogs
But what will our hero, Crash Gordon, do now there are no cash-rich pension funds to rob? How will Crash escape the ticking doom of staggering national debt? Will he end up like so many of his heroic Labour predecessors, grovelling before the IMF as Sterling plunges (ignore temporary rallies – even big ones – and remember Sterling is about 25% down against the dollar year on year)? Deprived of his cunning powers to raise stealth taxes, can our hero overcome the threat of Dave the Merciless?
Tune in next week for another exciting episode!
Surely it’s ‘Dave the Merciful’, if you believe all that compassionate conservatism stuff?
In the Crash Gordon Saviour of The Universe narrative, its Dave the Merciless. How else could you describe someone who callously won’t increase public sector spending quite as quickly as our brave hero? Is it not merciless to eschew tax cuts just because you’ll have to massively increase taxes later to pay for the horrible debt you just incurred? Heartless!
The time is fast approaching to polarise politics and offer the public real change.
I think so too. For too long, the Conservatives have not played to their strengths and demonstrated their social and fiscal responsibility. Now is the time to change that, as the public must really believe that the Conservatives are the best party to lead this country if we are to win an election.
With the economic outlook being so uncertain, brave and bold policies are needed from Cameron and it looks like we might finally be heading in that direction.
[...] From A Tory has been considering the positives and pitfalls of an early election this [...]
Having previously posted on the likelihood of a spring election,we pretty much came down on It Won’t Happen.
However if Brown gets some courage it probably really is his best opportunity.
Unemployment will climb massively next year. I expect the mar/apr numbers to be the worst of the year. A huge increase in % terms giving plenty of ammo to DC.
I still think that Gordon will plot and plan for a spring election,with the utmost secrecy, and it may well be worth the Tories having a really good spy network reporting on Labour preparations for a spring election. Plenty of PMQ’s on “how’s the preparations going today will the pm confirm that mar 9th is the day etc..”
Gives the Bottler tag new life if he doesn’t call it and puts pressure on him to give details if he does.
It will probably hinge on a Baby P type event at the end of the day.
I’ve already heard that the legislative programme is being cleared for spring next year, suggesting that there might well be a gap opening up in Labour’s schedule around that time….
The Conservatives need to sit down now, get in a good leader then write the policies from the bottom up, using previous Conservative lines from Thatcher onwards as a reference point. They should not give a toss about what the other parties are saying. then they should argue those policies hard and stick with them.
The Conservatives should absolutely give a toss what the other parties are saying. Sticking to conservative principles is exactly the right thing to do at all times, but it is essential that the Conservatives do not panic the voters or put forward schemes that hark back 20 years instead of dealing with the (very unique) current economic crisis.
Yes. We want actual, feasible, solutions to the current problems and not something that sounds nice and ticks ideological buttons but may not work. Keynseianism didn’t get us out of the Great Depression – WW2 did. It didn’t work in the 60s or 70s. Will it work now? Maybe but the evidence isn’t good. Equally retreading narrow ‘Thatcherite’ (Freedmanite) mantras about deregulation, low taxes and small statism won’t necessarily provide the solutions either (which is a shame as it ticks my boxed!). The best we can hope for is that we get leaders interested in finding the RIGHT answer and not just the answer that gets their ideological souls fluttering…
Labour’s looking happy because they are executing great swathes of the 1983 manifesto, nationalising Banks and private debt, while the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats stand around cheering them on. Council house building is now back on the agenda along with other great statist infrastructure projects… and we all know how the 70s worked out, right?
Trying to predict the economic and political future is extremely difficult. Therefore it is unwise to rule out an election next year and it is unwise to predict an election for next year. Anything can and probably will happen.